This week’s briefing moves across global markets, international trade and the UK property sector, tied together by a single theme: how investors, policymakers and markets are adjusting to political, regulatory and geopolitical change.
From soaring precious metals as uncertainty lingers, to brutal sell-offs in US healthcare insurers under regulatory pressure; from renewed UK-China dialogue on trade to signs of stabilisation in the prime UK property market, each story reflects a recalibration.
Read on for the full context behind the headlines and what these shifts might mean for investors in the months ahead.
Gold and silver extended an extraordinary rally into 2026, building on momentum that began last summer and intensified following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Gold reached a fresh high of just under $5,600 an ounce during the week, leaving prices close to double their level at the start of Trump’s second term. Silver followed a similar trajectory, rising from below $30 an ounce ahead of last year’s tariff announcements to over $118 and seeing a 300% increase in January alone.
While the price moves were global, their drivers may largely be US-centric, with implications well beyond American markets. Trump’s aggressive trade policy, repeated threats against geopolitical rivals, and direct pressure on the Federal Reserve unsettled investors, reinforcing gold’s role as a store of value during periods of institutional stress.
Analysts increasingly framed the rally as a broader loss of confidence rather than a simple inflation hedge. Daniela Hathorn of Capital.com described the move as “a re-pricing of trust” - encompassing faith in currencies, central banks, and the post-Cold War economic order. Giuseppe Sersale of Anthilia went further, warning that price action showed “all the hallmarks of a mania”.
Central bank buying remained a supportive factor, though not the dominant one. According to the World Gold Council, official sector purchases fell 21% in 2025 to 863 tonnes, suggesting that retail investors and speculative inflows played a growing role in recent gains. In the UK, this was reflected in heightened retail marketing, including the Royal Mint encouraging consumers to “fortify” their financial futures with gold.
For long-term investors in gold and silver, short-term volatility is often welcomed, and the growing potential for a retracement is unlikely to cause concern.
However, for those taking more speculative positions, the scale and speed of the recent move is harder to ignore. In silver’s case, a price increase of more than 300% in a relatively short period is inherently unsettling, making decisions around next steps far more complex.
With the Budget now settled, attention in the UK property market shifted to how greater tax clarity might shape activity in 2026 and beyond. In prime central London, values had already absorbed much of the impact of recent tax and regulatory changes, falling 4.8% in 2025, according to market estimates.
The absence of a stronger recovery reflects more than short-term conditions. A cumulative effect of tax changes over the past decade, combined with high-profile non-doms relocating abroad, continues to weigh on sentiment. As a result, forecasts from Savills pointed to modest price falls in 2026 rather than a rebound.
Outer prime London proves more resilient, with prices broadly flat at the end of 2025 and falling just 1.3% over the year. Houses continued to outperform flats, partly due to subdued buy-to-let demand, while mortgage costs and availability remained a key constraint.
Looking further ahead, regional prime markets appeared better positioned. Lower-value areas in the Midlands, North of England, Wales, and Scotland are expected to outperform, supported by affordability and, in Scotland’s case, temporary tax certainty following its January Budget.
Overall, the outlook is one of stabilisation rather than recovery, with gradual improvement dependent on interest rates, inflation, and policy consistency.
The UK government announced a new partnership with China aimed at expanding market access for British businesses, particularly in the services industry. The agreement was unveiled during the Prime Minister’s visit to Beijing and responded directly to calls from UK firms for clearer rules, better regulatory cooperation, and practical support for operating in China.
The partnership focuses on high-value service sectors, including healthcare, financial and professional services, legal services, education, and skills. Alongside this, China agreed to relax visa requirements for British citizens travelling for short stays, bringing the UK into line with over 50 other countries and easing short-term business travel.
Both sides also committed to a feasibility study exploring a potential bilateral services agreement, which could establish legally binding rules for UK firms operating in China. This was particularly significant given the UK’s position as the world’s second-largest exporter of services and forecasts showing strong growth in Chinese demand across professional, financial, and digital services through to 2035.
At present, UK firms sell around £13 billion of services to China annually, and the measures were framed as a way to build on that base rather than radically reshape the relationship. Business leaders emphasised the importance of stability, recognition of professional qualifications, and long-term engagement.
US healthcare insurers came under sharp pressure after the Trump administration outlined proposed Medicare payment rates for 2027 that were far lower than the market had expected. The Centres for Medicare and Medicaid Services announced that payments would rise by just 0.09%, well below the 4%–6% increase anticipated by analysts.
The proposal also included changes to how patient “risk scores” were calculated, aimed at reducing overbilling by insurers for treating sicker patients. This marked a clear shift in regulatory tone, with a greater focus on payment accuracy and long-term sustainability.
Insurers with heavy exposure to Medicare are particularly affected, as the programme represents a core source of revenue. The announcement followed an already difficult year for providers of government-sponsored plans, where rising costs and tighter margins had begun to erode profitability. United Healthcare, for example, won’t be turning the heating down any time soon, but a projected $12bn profit in 2025 would still mark its lowest since 2018 - notable in the context of revenues approaching $450bn.
These pressures are compounded by company-specific challenges, including investigations into billing practices and cautious revenue outlooks, reinforcing concerns that earnings recovery could be delayed. Analysts warned that, if the proposals were implemented without change, insurers would likely respond by cutting benefits and raising premiums to protect margins.
The announcements triggered a sharp market reaction, with UnitedHealth Group shares falling by more than 20% over two trading days. The stock now remains around 50% below its all-time high.