Weekly Briefing: Global Trade Tensions, UK Market Caution, Revolut's Expansion & Housebuilder Penalties

This week’s briefing highlights a landscape shaped by geopolitical trade tensions, sector-specific shifts, and fintech innovation.

Across the Atlantic President Trump’s renewed tariff threats have injected fresh volatility into global markets, with potential duties of up to 40% unsettling investors and prompting urgent diplomatic negotiations.

Looking to the UK, we cover how stock markets have remained relatively flat, with the FTSE 100 seeing minor gains, with miners outperforming while real estate and energy shares lagged.

Elsewhere, we explore fintech giant Revolut and their launch of a new tax-efficient ISA for UK retail investors, while also expanding into Argentina via a local banking acquisition—underscoring the company’s global ambitions.

Regulatory news is also on the agenda this week, as seven major UK housebuilders agreed to pay £100 million to affordable housing schemes following a CMA investigation into improper information sharing. 

As global and domestic pressures converge, this week underscores how policy moves, market sentiment, and compliance actions are collectively reshaping the financial environment. You will not want to miss it.

Trump’s Tariff Blitz Sparks Global Economic Turbulence

President Trump has threatened to impose sweeping new tariffs—25% for some countries and up to 40% for others—targeting 14 nations from 1 August. While the US president has left room for negotiation, the announcement has unsettled global markets.

These measures follow a wider pattern of aggressive trade actions dating back to January, disrupting relationships with major economies including China, the EU, Canada, and Mexico. Although some nations like the UK and Vietnam have negotiated exemptions, uncertainty remains high.

The fallout has been far-reaching. Businesses are scrambling to restructure supply chains, often resorting to stockpiling and delaying investments. While countries like India and Mexico are benefiting from diverted manufacturing, analysts warn this may be short-lived.

US import taxes have surged to levels not seen since the 1930s, fuelling inflation and raising prices on consumer staples. According to Goldman Sachs, products hit by tariffs are rising in price at a notably faster pace than other goods.

The OECD has revised its global growth forecast to just 2.9% for 2025–26, citing rising geopolitical risks and weakening demand. Central banks, including the Bank of England, warn that persistent trade disruption is creating a drag on wider economic activity.

As trade negotiations continue, markets remain on edge. While some investors are cautiously hopeful about softened outcomes, the broader outlook is clouded by uncertainty and fragmented global trade relations.

FTSE Holds Steady Despite Global Tensions and Domestic Headwinds

The FTSE 100 opened slightly higher this week, edging up by 0.1% to around 8,813 points amid cautious optimism that Trump’s tariff threats may lead to negotiated deals. Meanwhile, the FTSE 250 remained flat, reflecting a mixed mood in UK markets.

Precious-metals miners performed well, supported by stable gold prices. Companies such as Hochschild, Fresnillo, and Glencore posted gains, providing a lift to the broader index. However, oil and gas stocks fell, with Shell down 3% on weaker earnings.

Real estate shares slipped further amid signs of a slowdown in the UK housing market. Average house prices in June were unchanged at £296,665, with year-on-year growth slowing to 2.5%. Mortgage approvals saw a slight recovery, but overall momentum remains soft.

Corporate news added to the market’s uneven tone. Burberry fell over 2%, dragging the personal-goods sector lower, while mid-cap firm Victrex dropped nearly 9% after announcing a new CEO and a downbeat profit outlook.

Investors are also digesting the government’s newly announced carried interest tax reforms, set to come into force in April 2026. Smaller fund managers warn of an increased compliance burden, particularly around residency rules and asset holding periods.

Looking ahead, attention is turning to UK GDP data expected later this week. While markets are showing resilience, underlying concerns about domestic growth and international trade disruption continue to weigh on sentiment.

Revolut Expands Investment Options with UK ISA Launch and Argentina Move

Revolut has unveiled a new Stocks and Shares ISA for UK customers, marking a significant step in expanding its investment offerings. The product allows users to invest in shares and ETFs within a tax-efficient structure, starting from as little as £1.

The ISA gives access to a wide range of assets, including UK-listed companies, European and US stocks, and hundreds of ETFs from major providers like Vanguard and BlackRock. Revolut has also confirmed that transfers from existing ISA providers will be supported in the coming weeks.

In a further enhancement, interest on uninvested ISA cash balances is set to be introduced, though no specific launch date has been announced. The move is part of Revolut’s broader effort to make low-cost investment tools more accessible to UK retail investors.

This development follows the company’s recent launch of fractional bond investing across the European Economic Area. Users in the EEA can invest in government and corporate bonds in various currencies, starting from €100, directly through the Revolut app.

Alongside product expansion, Revolut is pushing ahead with international growth. The fintech firm has agreed to acquire Banco Cetelem in Argentina from BNP Paribas, securing a local banking licence and assets totalling around $6.4 million.

The acquisition signals Revolut’s entry into South America’s banking sector, with regulatory approval currently underway. A CEO has already been appointed to lead the Argentine operations as the company deepens its global financial footprint.

UK Housebuilders to Pay £100mn Following CMA Investigation

Seven major UK housebuilders have agreed to contribute a total of £100 million to affordable housing schemes after a probe by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) into the sharing of sensitive commercial information.

The CMA revealed that its investigation uncovered instances where confidential data, such as pricing details, had been passed between companies. Although no formal breach of competition law was found, the firms involved chose to make the payment and accept legally binding commitments to improve compliance.

The companies involved — Barratt Redrow, Bellway, Berkeley Group, Bloor Homes, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, and Vistry — have pledged to restrict the nature of information they share moving forward. They will also work with industry bodies to develop new guidelines that promote fair competition.

Under the proposed commitments, companies will no longer be allowed to exchange certain types of commercially sensitive data, including house sale prices. The goal is to foster a more competitive environment in the housing market, helping to keep prices in check.

The payments will be directed towards affordable housing initiatives throughout the UK. Before finalising the plan, the CMA intends to consult the public on both the financial contribution and the companies’ proposed undertakings.

CMA chief executive Sarah Cardell highlighted the importance of competition in the housing sector, stating that it plays a vital role in keeping costs manageable for consumers and supporting greater choice in the market.

Final Note

This week’s events reflect a financial landscape under pressure from both global and domestic forces. President Trump’s renewed tariff threats have stirred market unease, with potential consequences for global trade, inflation, and economic growth. While some exemptions offer hope, uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on investor confidence.

In the UK, markets have held steady but remain cautious. Sector-specific challenges—such as slowing house prices, weak corporate earnings, and looming tax reforms—highlight the fragile balance between resilience and risk. Meanwhile, Revolut’s expansion and the CMA’s crackdown on anti-competitive behaviour among housebuilders signal an environment where innovation and regulation are moving in tandem.

As investors digest these developments, the key takeaway is clear: agility and awareness will be essential in the months ahead, as markets navigate policy shifts, regulatory changes, and shifting economic momentum both at home and abroad.