Weekly Briefing: Bond Market Shock, Overseas Buyer Retreat, £50bn UK Boost & India Trade Deal

In this week’s edition of the GCV Weekly Briefing, we explore the sharp rise in UK government bond yields—the highest in nearly three decades, the record-low share of overseas buyers in the UK property market, Universal’s ambitious £50 billion theme park development in Bedfordshire, and the latest progress in UK-India free trade talks.

Each story offers a unique lens on the evolving investment landscape—from market volatility and shifting real estate trends to transformative infrastructure projects and geopolitical deal-making. 

While this week's briefing largely centres on the UK, it would be remiss not to acknowledge what's unfolding across the Atlantic. US stock markets just experienced one of their biggest rallies since World War II, with the S&P 500 soaring 9.5% after President Trump suspended tariffs on most nations.

In times like these—marked by volatility and abrupt policy pivots—uncertainty remains the only constant.

Read on for the key UK developments shaping opportunities for investors across sectors.

UK Government Bond Yields Surge to 27-Year High as Trade Jitters Intensify

• UK 30-year gilt yields hit 5.507% on April 9, their highest level since 1998, as global bond markets reacted sharply to mounting trade tensions. The move followed a broad selloff in U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds, triggered by Donald Trump’s new tariffs targeting Chinese imports.
  
  
• Investors are now reassessing expectations for central bank policy, with UK interest rate futures pricing in two Bank of England cuts in 2025, and a 68% chance of a first reduction as early as May. Despite these forecasts, the bond selloff pushed up long-term borrowing costs, complicating fiscal planning and raising questions about the timing of any cuts.
  
  
• The Bank of England warned this week that the UK’s openness to global capital flows makes it particularly vulnerable to external financial shocks, adding further pressure to an already fragile outlook. The UK’s next government may have to grapple with higher debt servicing costs just as demand for infrastructure spending rises.
  
  
• As yields climbed, investors also sold off shorter-dated gilts, flattening the yield curve and sparking concerns that growth expectations are falling behind inflation fears.
  
  
• “The UK is stuck between its own rate-cutting path and global markets pricing in more volatility,” said Lizzy Galbraith, political economist at ABRDN.

Overseas Buyers Retreat from UK Property Market to Record Low

• The share of overseas buyers in the UK property market fell to 1% in Q1 2025, marking the lowest level since records began in 2005, according to data from Countrywide. In central London, international buyer presence dipped to 2.9%, well below the 7.9% peak seen in 2009.
  
  
• European interest has dropped sharply, now accounting for just 43% of overseas buyers—the lowest figure since the global financial crisis. Tax changes, especially Labour’s proposed overhaul of non-dom status, have added to the cooling effect.
  
  
• In contrast, buyers from North America and the Middle East are showing increased appetite for UK property, with the U.S. share rising to 16%—more than double its 2008 level. Analysts cite currency advantages and long-term investment strategies as driving this shift.
  
  
• Despite falling international demand, prices in prime locations have held steady, underpinned by limited supply and strong domestic interest.
  
  
• Some estate agents believe this shift could open up more opportunities for UK-based investors, particularly in prime locations traditionally dominated by global capital.
  
  
• “We’ve never seen the international mix change this quickly—London is still a global city, but buyers are different now, and they’re coming for different reasons,” said Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank.

Universal Confirms £50bn Theme Park Project in Bedfordshire

• Comcast has confirmed plans to build the first Universal Studios theme park in Europe, choosing a 476-acre site in Bedfordshire with direct rail links to London and Luton Airport. Scheduled to open by 2031, the park is projected to bring in £50 billion to the UK economy by 2055.
  
  
• The development will include a theme park, a 500-room hotel, dining and retail spaces, and dedicated creative studio space. Universal Destinations & Experiences UK Ltd has already been formed as the local arm of the global project.
  
  
• Over 28,000 jobs are expected to be created—20,000 in construction and 8,000 permanent roles—making it one of the most significant tourism investments in recent British history.
  
  
• The resort's scale and timing coincide with wider UK efforts to attract foreign direct investment into creative industries and regional infrastructure.
  
  
• Universal’s choice of site, a former clay pit and brickworks aligns with government plans to regenerate brownfield land and spread economic activity beyond London.
  
  
• “This is more than a theme park—it’s a transformative project that will support tourism, jobs, and growth for generations,” said Page Thompson, Universal’s EVP for international destinations.

UK and India Close In on Landmark Free Trade Deal

• Negotiations between the UK and India have advanced significantly, with around 90% of the free trade agreement now settled, according to officials close to the talks. After 14 rounds, only a handful of contentious issues remain—chief among them tariffs on whisky and access for British pharmaceutical firms.
  
  
• A breakthrough has already been reached on mobility, paving the way for smoother visa routes for Indian professionals entering the UK. The deal is seen as central to Britain’s post-Brexit trade strategy, especially after recent frictions with the U.S.
  
  
• If finalised, the agreement could cut India’s 150% tariff on Scotch whisky and improve UK access to its vast middle-class consumer base.
  
  
• However, India is wary of opening its markets too widely ahead of its own general election, while the UK is under pressure to seal deals before the end of this Parliament.
  
  
• A deal would also symbolically reinforce Commonwealth ties, offering a contrast to rising U.S. and EU trade protectionism.
  
  
• “The negotiations are in the endgame now—what’s left is the political choreography. Both sides want a win, but neither wants to blink first,” said a senior UK trade negotiator involved in the process.

Final Note

From rising bond yields to shifting patterns in international investment, this week’s developments reflect the increasingly complex environment facing UK markets. 

The retreat of overseas buyers underscores a changing real estate dynamic, while Universal’s £50 billion commitment highlights long-term confidence in Britain’s economic potential. Meanwhile, the nearing UK-India trade deal could reshape access to one of the world’s fastest-growing consumer markets.

As global forces—from U.S. tariffs to domestic fiscal pressures—continue to collide, investors will need to stay agile, informed, and attuned to both risks and opportunities emerging at home and abroad.